Cher Monsieur Ulmann

Comme annonce dans mon fax du 11 19 2002; Claude Mercier(Directeur General )
Thomas Bernard et moi nous avons choisi la societe qui va nous representer
en Allemagne .
Malheureusement pour Klaus ,il va avoir beaucoup de travail car c'est lui
qui va nous representer en Allemagne.
Je pense que c'est une bonne decision pour Allied et nous.

Je suis tres heureux d'avoir participe au choix de votre societe pour nous
representer aux USA et en Allemagne.En effet je quitte la societe fin
Decembre pour une retraite attendue

Thomas Bernard sera votre support pour ces 2 pays et prends une partie de
mes resposabilites .Je suis sure que vous allez faire du bon business contre
Rotron. Rotron n ' a pas de chance contre cette machine de guerre !!!!

Bonne chance;je demanderai a Thomas de me contacter pour vous saluer
lorsque vous viendrez chez LMB .
J ai presente notre choix a Peter Hill qui est un franglais et qui me
remplace pour certaines fontions et qui est aussi un dirigeant dans le
groupe.Cest un debut d'officialisation de notre complicite dans le groupe .
Congratulations ;good luck;
Rene Chapalain

DEFENSE COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT -- Both Shipments and Orders Soared During October

Industry shipments from U.S. manufacturers of defense communications equipment rose by a steep 14.6% between September and October. This followed two consecutive months of decline.

At the same time, the value of new orders received by defense communications equipment manufacturers soared by 24.8% during October, on the heels of an even-more-robust gain of 43.5% recorded between August and September.

The value of shipments from manufacturers in the industry was 8.2% higher this October than last October. And through the first 10 months of this year, the value of shipments from the industry was running a solid 4.4% ahead of the total for the same period a year ago. The value of new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers of defense communications equipment was up by 11.2% over the same period of time.







DEFENSE COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT: U.S. Manufacturers' Shipments

Billions of $ %Change vs. Same Month Last Year %Change (Current 12 months vs. Prev. 12 months)
Jan-01 $0.28 12.8% 12.1%
Feb-01 $0.31 21.8% 13.3%
Mar-01 $0.27 1.5% 12.7%
Apr-01 $0.29 -0.3% 11.1%
May-01 $0.31 23.5% 13.2%
Jun-01 $0.30 6.1% 12.2%
Jul-01 $0.29 4.3% 11.4%
Aug-01 $0.33 17.4% 11.7%
Sep-01 $0.29 6.3% 11.3%
Oct-01 $0.30 -3.8% 8.5%
Nov-01 $0.31 8.5% 8.3%
Dec-01 $0.32 17.5% 9.2%
Jan-02 $0.33 18.1% 9.7%
Feb-02 $0.32 2.6% 8.1%
Mar-02 $0.30 11.9% 9.0%
Apr-02 $0.31 7.7% 9.6%
May-02 $0.33 5.2% 8.2%
Jun-02 $0.30 0.0% 7.7%
Jul-02 $0.31 4.8% 7.7%
Aug-02 $0.30 -8.2% 5.5%
Sep-02 $0.29 -0.7% 4.9%
Oct-02 $0.33 8.2% 6.0%
Forecast
Q4-02 $0.32* N/A 4.3%
Q1-03 $0.34* N/A 3.5%
Q2-03 $0.35* N/A 5.2%
Q3-03 $0.33* N/A 7.9%
Q4-03 $0.35* N/A 8.6%



* average month within quarter

SOURCE: COMMERCE DEPARTMENT. FORECAST: ELECTRONIC BUSINESS




ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS - Shipments Rose in October, Following Four Straight Months of Decline

Shipments of electronic components (excluding semiconductors) rose by an estimated 3.1% during October, after declining by a revised 3.8% during September, and by smaller amounts during June, July and August.

The value of October 2002 shipments from U.S. electronic component makers was 2.1% above the total for October of 2001 -- the fourth month in a row that the current month's total bested the year-earlier level.

And the value of new orders received by U.S. electronic components makers surged by 45.9% between September and October. Orders to U.S. electronic component manufacturers had declined by magnitudes of 8.9% in August and 21.7% during September. Manufacturers in the U.S. received orders worth 6.9% more during October of this year than in October of 2001.

Through the first 10 months of 2002, industry shipments were running 11.4% behind the year-ago pace, while orders were off by the lesser amount of 6.0% from last year's January-October total.

Industry inventory levels rose by 2.5% between September and October. But October 2002 industry-wide inventory values were worth an estimated 11.0% less than the level that had been recorded during October of last year.








ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS: U.S. Manufacturers' Shipments

Billions of $ %Change vs. Same Month Last Year %Change (Current 12 months vs. Prev. 12 months)
Jan-01 $6.21 2.4% 16.5%
Feb-01 $6.24 1.7% 14.5%
Mar-01 $5.46 -11.9% 11.3%
Apr-01 $4.29 -33.7% 5.4%
May-01 $4.54 -29.7% -2.8%
Jun-01 $4.74 -23.7% -2.9%
Jul-01 $3.97 -35.1% -6.9%
Aug-01 $4.15 -33.9% -11.1%
Sep-01 $3.84 -39.4% -15.4%
Oct-01 $4.09 -33.4% -18.9%
Nov-01 $4.31 -30.7% -22.0%
Dec-01 $4.14 -34.8% -25.4%
Jan-02 $4.23 -31.8% -28.1%
Feb-02 $4.23 -32.2% -30.9%
Mar-02 $4.15 -24.0% -32.0%
Apr-02 $4.17 -2.6% -30.1%
May-02 $4.32 -4.8% -28.5%
Jun-02 $4.27 -10.0% -27.6%
Jul-02 $4.23 6.5% -24.9%
Aug-02 $4.21 1.5% -22.3%
Sep-02 $4.05 5.3% -18.9%
Oct-02 $4.18 2.1% -16.0%
Forecast
Q4-02 $4.40* N/A -8.8%
Q1-03 $4.46* N/A 2.3%
Q2-03 $4.56* N/A 5.8%
Q3-03 $4.55* N/A 7.0%
Q4-03 $4.89* N/A 8.5%



* average month within quarter

SOURCE: COMMERCE DEPARTMENT. FORECAST: ELECTRONIC BUSINESS

Industry News I heard a couple of interesting rumors talking to an investment banker over the holidays. The United Airlines CH11 is a forgone conclusion. The investor who is going to take over is already meeting and planning with the airline management. Airline parts sales are expected to pick up in January as cannibalized stocks and repairable inventory are exhausted by the airlines.

THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY Normally we close early on Wednesday for Thanksgiving and do not reopen until the following Monday. This year we are going to have a big snow storm tomorrow in Bedford Hills; so we are working late Tuesday night and then not reopening until next Monday. Florida will be open on Wednesday. If you have urgent business over the holiday please feel free to call me on my cell phone at 914 804 5162. Have a happy Thanksgiving.

F16 Parts: We can offer excellent prices on the following types of F16 parts: Hoses, Transformer Rectifiers Units, Spherical Bearings and Bushings.

Precision Coil Spring Update We signed the contract in August and received our first commission check for existing business last week. PCS make the clips the hold the windows on Boeing aircraft. They also sell clips to companies like TA and Lord that make vibration mounts. For more info on applications , contact Darryl Sauer.

LM2500 Ground based turbines by GE. We are looking for customers who repair or manufacture these turbines under license. There are hoses and Southwest Products bearings we are selling today. Contact Loretta for a list of part numbers.

New Business Focus: Flex Hose and Rigid Tube
We want to quote any and all hose opportunities. We have been selling hose for more than 10 years, first with Stratoflex and now with Titeflex. In the UK, Germany, Scandinavia, Austria, Czech and Poland we represent Titeflex, Titeflex Europe and Lewis & Saunders for OEM applications. In many other countries Titeflex have no representatives and are willing to work with us on an exclusive basis. For operators, airlines, armed forces we can identify and supply hose and accessories from any of the majors, including rubber hose. Last year we had substantial orders from NAMSA (NATO) and other foreign military in Europe and South America. This can be good margin business for everybody.

The point of this web site is to improve communication around Allied. I hope some of you will want to contribute. Posting links and pictures takes a little practice, but posting text is very simple. Click on comments or email me at alec@alliedinter.com and I will add you to the editors.

All the interior has been repainted. here is the conference room.

Allied HQ in Bedford Hills is going through a major refurbishment. Here you can see the
new exterior paint and repaved parking lot.

The photos are a new feature. .

JPMorgan Commercial Aircraft Delivery Estimates

TURBINE-ENGINED FLEETS OF THE WORLD'S AIRLINES - DECEMBER 31, 2001

Parked narrowbodies

Parked widebodies

Parked turboprops

All the A380 suppliers

Looks like some airlines in Europe are doing a little better:
This from Flight International Nov 5 2002:


Lufthansa has reported a 172% increase in operating profits for the first nine months of the year to €790 million ($790 million), exceeding its €500 profit forecast for the full financial year. Revenues rose by 2.7% to €12.6 billion, while net profit more than quadrupled from €65 million to €344 million. Lufthansa is now forecasting a full-year operating result of €700-750 million.

Lufthansa chairman and chief executive Jurgen Weber says: "In the deepest crisis of the aviation industry Lufthansa succeeded in protecting its group of companies against a serious threat to its very existence, maintaining the quality of its offerings at a high level, remaining profitable, and, as a result, securing jobs and even creating perspectives for the creation of new jobs."

Lufthansa warns it faces 'greater risks in the final three months the year. The stagnating economy, political instability and a decline in business travel'. It says the large union wage claims coupled with proposed tax plans of Germany's new government also threatens the airline's financial performance. Weber says: 'A whole wave of discriminations will hit German airlines if these plans are faithfully implemented.'
British Airways' second quarter pre-tax profits have increased to £245 million ($383 million) compared to a profit of just $5 million for the same period in 2001, which was badly affected by the fall-out of 11 September. Interim pre-tax profits have increased to £310 million for the six months from April to September 2002, compared to £45 million last year. The airline expects to return to profitability this year, after making a pre-tax loss of £200 million for the full year last year and an operating loss of £30 million. BA's second quarter operating profit increased from £72 million last year to £248 million, and first half operating profit was £406 million, compared to £284 million last year. The airline's capacity cuts have yielded a 10.1% reduction in available seat-km during the quarter, while traffic (revenue passenger-km) was down 6.8%. Load factor increased 2.8% to 76.7%. Revenue fell 6.5% in the second quarter to £2.1 billion, and was down 8% for the first half at £4.15 billion. With the airline's recovery being cost rather than revenue driven, its cost reduction programme has seen operating expenditure down 15% in the second quarter at £1.85 billion.

According to this article the small and mid size companies, typical of those we work with are getting squeezed out